OUTLOOK FOR INDIANA

WILDLAND FIRE SEASON JUNE 16, 2007

We are in fire season and we normally are not!

June 16, 2007                                                                                     

PRECIPITATION

The entire State has received below normal precipitation for the 90 day period from March 10 to June 8, 2007.  The N half of the state is 1-3 inches below normal for the period while the S half of the state is 3-6 inches below normal precipitation, the farther S the less precipitation.

For the 30 day period from May 9 – June 8, 2007 the entire state is 1-4 inches below normal precipitation, with the S two thirds showing from 2.5 to 4 inches below normal while the N 1/3 is 1-2 inches below normal.

The precipitation outlook for the State indicates that we will experience below normal  precipitation statewide for the next 15 to 30 days. 

FUELS (Statewide)

Current dead fuel moistures:

            1 hour (1/4 inch or less diameter)        6-10 % (Variable)

            10 hour (1/4 – 1 inch diameter)                       7-12%

            100 hour (1-3 inch diameter)               9-12%

            1000 hour (3-8 inch diameter)             15-18%

Current live fuel moisture:

            Woody                                                 118-122%

            Herbaceous                                          98-105 %

The fine dead fuels (1 hour) and 10 hour fuels will be the predominant carrier of a flaming front. 100 and 1000 hour fuels may char and smolder with some consumption possible.  One hour fuels will dry quickly with sunshine and lower relative humidity, the 10 hour fuels will take a couple of days to react to ambient weather conditions dependant upon whether we are entering a drying period or a wetting period.  The 100 and 1000 hour fuels will react much slower and require approximately two weeks to react to ambient weather conditions.

Fuel loading in available fuels at present is low to moderate and consists of the existing leaf litter from last fall and the grasses that are beginning to cure.  The leaf litter is compact and the fuel bed is typically 1-3 inches deep in woodland areas. 

FIRE BEHAVIOR

With current conditions expect .5-2 foot flame lengths in leaf litter and typical dead grasses with typical rates of spread unless high winds are present.  In timber fuels expect 2 - 10 ch/hr and in grasses expect 3-70+ ch/hr.  This will increase as fuel moistures decrease with the lack of precipitation and higher temperatures and lower relative humidity (Rh).  Fire behavior will be low to moderate, however normally it is low to non existent this time of year.   

DROUGHT CONDITION SUMMARY

The U.S Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates that no parts of Indiana are experiencing drought conditions at this time.  However, if the lack of precipitation persists we can expect that to change.

The best index measure of drought for wildland fire related purposes is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI).  This index is a measure of moisture deficiency based upon current and recent weather conditions and the resulting relationship to potential fire behavior.  The index is a number ranging from 0 – 800 with “0” indicating no moisture deficit and “800” indicating the maximum drought possible.  Presently KBDI ranges from approximately 200 in the N ½ of the state to approximately 422-446 in the S ½ of the State. In the Southern 2/3 of the state expect to see roadside fires and fire creeping from debris burning in the cured grass.  The leaf litter will carry fire.  In the N 1/3 expect some creeping fires with potential for more active fires in cured light fuels.

NARRATIVE

It is very dry for this time of year and promises to continue to dry out.  Grasses are curing, dead decaying litter in the forest will ignite and leaf litter will carry fire.  Small fires are being reported from the S ½ of the state and expect the trend to move north rapidly if we continue to remain dry.   Temperatures will be in the high 80’s and low 90’s, daytime humidity have been in the 20’s and 30’s, dewpoints have been low so we are getting minimal moisture recovery a majority of the nights.

The farther South in the State you go the drier the conditions.

Please be aware of the conditions.  If you have not already done so, get your fire equipment ready, get your personnel ready, contact your local fire departments and review procedures, contact your local media concerning dry conditions, and be ready for starts.

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS:  Wheat fields, the upcoming 4^th of July fireworks.

NOTE:  Comparing NFDRS from 2007 to 1999 we are drier this year than we were at this time in 1999.

HEADS UP:  Harrison County expects their County Commissioners to approve a County Open Burning Ban on Monday June 18.  Expect other counties to follow suite if the dry conditions persist.

The Department of Homeland Security has activated the Drought Task Force, the first meeting will be Monday June 18, 2007.

IMPORTANT:  The National Weather Service in Indianapolis is now issuing Fire Weather Forecasts for the counties in the middle 2/3 of the State.  Louisville, Paducah, Wilmington, OH and Chicago continue to issue Fire Weather Forecasts for the respective counties in their areas of responsibility.

The preceding is an assessment of current climatic and fuels observations taken around the State that have the potential to influence the severity of the spring fire season.  Information to produce this assessment has been pulled from many resources including (but not limited to): National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Indiana State Climate Office, USDA Forest Service and Cooperator RAWS sites.  The above information is not an official forecast, however should be considered for planning and preparation purposes.